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When Shiller entered college, he had one big reservation: declaring a major.
"It meant I had to give up my childhood dreams of doing everything." He describes how painful it was for him to choose, never knowing whether he’d made the right decision (though most people today would say he absolutely did).
There are two things that those close to Shiller say about him: one is that even though he’s incredibly busy, he finds it hard to say no to anyone or anything – and the other is that he’s very talkative.
And when we meet him on the Yale campus where he’s been a professor of economics since 1982, you can easily understand why his wife Virginia (“Ginny”), a psychologist, believes he might have Attention Deficit Disorder.
Born: 1946, Detroit, Michigan, USA Field: Financial Economics Prize-winning work: Empirical analysis of asset prices Favorite Bob Shiller stories: Misplacing his car; got a D in citizenship in school; is not able to do anything half-heartedly; generally interested in the most unusual topics (like migration of birds to South America) Best wife in the world: Allowed him to mortgage their house to invest in his company (it was a success, fortunately) The major theme of his work: Fighting for a new financial order Lesson learned: Never leave an economics professor and a camera operator unattended on a humid day - they’ll return completely soaked It’s no surprise that a man described by his friends as someone interested in basically everything would crack open the field of economics and take a thorough look at other disciplines as well.
Table 1 provides a detailed example of how the CAPE is determined.
It is frequently suggested that the CAPE should be considered a mean-reverting series.
Shiller defines the numerator of the CAPE as the real (“inflation-adjusted”) price level of the S&P 500 index and the denominator as the moving average of the preceding 10 years of S&P 500 real reported earnings, where the U. Consumer Price Index is used to adjust for inflation.
The purpose of averaging 10 years of real reported earnings is to control for business cycle effects.